Associated Press . Jakarta
Joko Widodo, Prabowo Subianto
As the world’s third-largest democracy prepares to elect a new president Wednesday, Indonesians are divided between two very different choices: a former furniture maker and a wealthy ex-army general with close links to former dictator Suharto.
Just a few months ago, the election was considered firmly in favour of Joko Widodo, who rose from humble beginnings to become the governor of Jakarta with a squeaky clean political record.
But the race is now too close to call after a late surge by Prabowo Subianto, who has wooed legions of supporters with his calls for nationalism despite allegations of widespread human rights abuses during his military career and his connection with Suharto – his former father-in-law.
When the polls open to nearly 190 million eligible voters on Wednesday, analysts say those who are undecided will determine the winner.
The two candidates are vastly different in their policies and styles. Widodo, known by his nickname Jokowi, is a soft-spoken man who likes to wear sneakers, listen to heavy metal music, wear casual plaid shirts and make impromptu visits to the slums. Seen as a man of the people who wants to advance democratic reform even though he lacks experience in national politics, he represents a break from the past as the first candidate in direct elections with no connection to Suharto-era politics.
Subianto is known for his thundering campaign speeches, a penchant for luxury cars and having trotted up to one rally on an expensive horse. He has the support of the most hardline Islamic parties and has sparked concern among foreign investors worried about protectionism and a possible return to more Suharto-era policies.
‘Many Indonesian Muslims prefer Prabowo’s strong and dynamic character, which can stand up in facing the foreign policies of neighbouring countries and the US,’ said Ikrar Nusabhakti, a political analyst from the Indonesia Institute of Science. ‘While other people are responding positively to Jokowi’s caring and earthy traits.’
Black campaigns, as smear campaigns are known here, have surfaced in both camps. But Widodo, 53, has blamed his fall in opinion polls – from a lead of more than 12 percentage points in May to just around 3.5 points now – on character assaults that accused him, among other things, of not being a follower of Islam. He has denounced the charges as lies, but says it’s hard to undo the damage it caused in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.
‘I think these black campaigns were effective enough to convince communities,’ said Hamdi Muluk, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia. ‘And that has directly ruined Widodo’s image.’
But he added that Subianto’s past, including allegations that he kidnapped pro-democracy activists prior to Suharto’s fall in 1998, have not gone unnoticed and some voters fear a return to the brutal dictator’s New Order regime.
‘Considering the role models and figures behind Widodo’s team, I believe many new voters tend to support Jokowi,’ Muluk said. ‘A return to the New Order is not popular among youngsters or new voters. They are interested more in change.’
Just a few months ago, the election was considered firmly in favour of Joko Widodo, who rose from humble beginnings to become the governor of Jakarta with a squeaky clean political record.
But the race is now too close to call after a late surge by Prabowo Subianto, who has wooed legions of supporters with his calls for nationalism despite allegations of widespread human rights abuses during his military career and his connection with Suharto – his former father-in-law.
When the polls open to nearly 190 million eligible voters on Wednesday, analysts say those who are undecided will determine the winner.
The two candidates are vastly different in their policies and styles. Widodo, known by his nickname Jokowi, is a soft-spoken man who likes to wear sneakers, listen to heavy metal music, wear casual plaid shirts and make impromptu visits to the slums. Seen as a man of the people who wants to advance democratic reform even though he lacks experience in national politics, he represents a break from the past as the first candidate in direct elections with no connection to Suharto-era politics.
Subianto is known for his thundering campaign speeches, a penchant for luxury cars and having trotted up to one rally on an expensive horse. He has the support of the most hardline Islamic parties and has sparked concern among foreign investors worried about protectionism and a possible return to more Suharto-era policies.
‘Many Indonesian Muslims prefer Prabowo’s strong and dynamic character, which can stand up in facing the foreign policies of neighbouring countries and the US,’ said Ikrar Nusabhakti, a political analyst from the Indonesia Institute of Science. ‘While other people are responding positively to Jokowi’s caring and earthy traits.’
Black campaigns, as smear campaigns are known here, have surfaced in both camps. But Widodo, 53, has blamed his fall in opinion polls – from a lead of more than 12 percentage points in May to just around 3.5 points now – on character assaults that accused him, among other things, of not being a follower of Islam. He has denounced the charges as lies, but says it’s hard to undo the damage it caused in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.
‘I think these black campaigns were effective enough to convince communities,’ said Hamdi Muluk, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia. ‘And that has directly ruined Widodo’s image.’
But he added that Subianto’s past, including allegations that he kidnapped pro-democracy activists prior to Suharto’s fall in 1998, have not gone unnoticed and some voters fear a return to the brutal dictator’s New Order regime.
‘Considering the role models and figures behind Widodo’s team, I believe many new voters tend to support Jokowi,’ Muluk said. ‘A return to the New Order is not popular among youngsters or new voters. They are interested more in change.’
